ANALYSIS | President Obama's chances for a second term vary depending on which of the GOP candidates he's pitted against in polling, but it's becoming clear that if the 2012 elections were held tomorrow, some would be stronger opponents than others. Any of the GOP candidates, however, could pose challenges to his hopes for re-election.
Obama vs. Rick Perry
Gov. Perry has slipped dramatically in the rankings since he began participating in the GOP presidential debates. Gallup polling showed him holding the top spot in September, with 31 percent. The most recent polling averages now put him in fourth place, with just 10 percent. But if he were to rebound and win his party's nomination for president, he would be a very favorable opponent for Obama.
Perry has proven in the GOP debates that he's not particularly good at thinking on his feet, often giving poor or confusing answers to questions posed to him. Obama, on the other hand, has been praised by John F. Kennedy's speechwriter Ted Sorenson and other experts for his ability to articulate his ideas. Presidential debates between these two would likely conclude in Obama's favor.
On the issues, the two stand far apart in their positions on health care, with Perry promising to repeal the president's plan, which he refers to as "Obamacare." The president wants to expand the reach of his initiatives, using his initial health care measures as a blueprint for future additions.
As is the case with any of the GOP candidates, the president's biggest vulnerability should he face Rick Perry is the state of the U.S. economy and the high unemployment rate, which still stood at 9 percent in October. Here Perry could have more of an advantage than some of the other candidates, in that he maintains that 40 percent of all the net new jobs created in the U.S. since June of 2009 have been created in Texas, under his leadership.
Obama, by contrast, will seek to tout the virtues of his American Jobs Act. The administration is actively promoting the plan as a means to cut taxes for small businesses, curb unemployment by putting veterans, teachers, and builders back on the job, and to provide tax relief to citizens.
Obama vs. Mitt Romney
Early indications suggest that the president's staff is already preparing to face Romney next November, as Romney has consistently been the strongest of the GOP candidates when pitted against Obama in polls. Polling conducted at the end of last week indicated that this is still the case, likely making him the GOP candidate that the Obama campaign would rather not face in 2012.
There are several issues on which Romney would prove problematic for the president. First and foremost, there is again the issue of the economy and unemployment. Romney has spent much of his life in the private sector, and he will tout his experiences running firms such as Bain Capital and Bain & Company as proof that he knows how to manage and create jobs.
The other dilemma that will present itself should the president face Romney in 2012 is the difficulty of distinguishing himself from his opponent on other key issues, such as health care. Obama used Romney's health care plan in Massachusetts as a blueprint for his own, which makes it difficult for him to rail against "Obamacare" in the same manner as the other GOP candidates. This and other issues where the moderate tendencies of both candidates come into play will prove challenging for both of them.
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